อานิสงส์วีซ่าฟรี ดันดัชนีเชื่อมั่นอุตฯ ขยับตัวเพิ่มขึ้น แนะรัฐเร่งเบิกจ่ายงบปี’67 ผลักเม็ดเงินเข้าระบบ ศก.Benefits of Free Visa Program Increase Industrial Confidence Index, Recommend Government to Accelerate 2024 Budget Disbursement to Inject Funds into the Economy

On April 11, 2024, Mr. Kriangkrai Theeranukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), and Mr. Montree Mahapruekphong, Vice Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), jointly announced the results of the Industrial Confidence Index survey for March 2024, which stood at 92.4, an increase from 90.0 in February 2024. The improved confidence was supported by a gradual recovery in domestic demand, reflected in the demand for consumer goods and durable goods, while the tourism sector continued to expand and benefited from the free visa measures recently implemented.

Mr. Kriangkrai Theeranukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), and Mr. Montree Mahapruekphong, Vice Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), jointly announced the results of the Industrial Confidence Index survey for March 2024, which stood at 92.4, up from 90.0 in February 2024. When considering the components of the index, overall sales, total orders, production volume, and business performance have increased compared to the previous month. The increased confidence was supported by a gradual recovery in domestic demand, reflected in the demand for consumer goods and durable goods, such as household electrical appliances, air conditioners, and furniture that have seen increased demand. Meanwhile, the tourism sector continued to expand and benefited from the free visa measures implemented recently. In terms of exports, there was a positive recovery in line with the global economic recovery and the economies of key trading partners such as the United States, India, and Australia. In March, operators ramped up production ahead of the continuous holiday for the Songkran Festival. Furthermore, operators benefited from the diesel price freeze measure, which capped the price at 30 baht per liter, thus reducing production and transportation costs for businesses.

However, there are still negative factors such as the consistently high household and business debt, which limit the recovery of the domestic economy. Additionally, operators are concerned about rising financial costs and interest rates, as well as the uncertainty of the global economy, particularly regarding the economies of China, Japan, and the European Union, which hinder a full recovery of exports.

Based on a survey of 1,336 operators covering 46 industry groups of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) in March 2024, it was found that the factors causing increased concern among operators include loan interest rates at 75.0%, oil prices at 55.8%, and the domestic economy at 50.2%, respectively. Factors that caused reduced concern include the global economy at 78.5%, exchange rates (exporters' perspective), with the exchange rate referring to the Thai baht against the US dollar at 36.1%, and the political situation in the country at 30.5%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the index forecast for the next three months stands at 100.8, an increase from 100.0 in February 2024, supported by the government's tourism promotion measures and the disbursement of the 2024 budget in the second quarter of 2024, as well as a favorable outlook for exports due to the expansion of global market demand. However, there are still risks that need to be monitored, including unresolved geopolitical conflicts leading to higher global oil prices, as well as increased trade barriers being applied to Thai export products, such as environmental measures and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) of the European Union.

Recommendations for the Government

1. It is recommended that the government implement plans to expedite the disbursement of the 2024 budget after the fiscal year 2024 budget act is enacted, particularly for the continuous disbursement of outstanding investment budgets and government procurement to ensure that funds are injected into the economy promptly.
2. It is recommended that the government host trade shows for Thai products both centrally and regionally to enhance distribution channels for operators and support soft power, as well as conduct roadshows to showcase products abroad.
3. The government is requested to maintain the stability of the Thai baht to prevent volatility, as well as promote import and export activities among operators while providing tools to hedge against exchange rate risks.

The FTI has compiled survey data on the Industrial Confidence Index and various economic and industrial indicators from various agencies over the past three years, which has been developed into a Dashboard published on the FTI's Industry Data Space (iDS) website to facilitate access to useful information for operators and the public for business operations. This information can be accessed at www.fti.or.th/ids.

The FTI is committed to “Strengthening Thai Industries for a Stronger Thailand.”

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Published by the Corporate Communications Department of the Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1013)

Data prepared by the Economics and Academic Department of the Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1111)