ส.อ.ท. ชี้ดัชนีเชื่อมั่นภาคอุตฯ ลด หวังโครงการรัฐช่วยฟื้นเศรษฐกิจFTI Reports Decline in Industrial Confidence Index, Anticipates Government Projects to Aid Economic Recovery

On August 19, 2025, Mr. Kriangkrai Thiennukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), together with M.L. Pikthong Thongyai, Vice Chairman of FTI and Chairman of the Economic and Academic Department of FTI, Mr. Apichit Prasoprat, Mr. Nawa Chantanasurakorn, Vice Chairman of FTI, and Ms. Pannarat Petchphakdee, Director-General of FTI, announced the results of the industrial sector's confidence index survey for July 2025, which stood at 86.6, a decrease from 87.7 in June 2025. This decline is attributed to the dispute at the Thai-Cambodian border affecting economic activities and border trade, along with flooding in the Northern region and concerns over the preparation of the budget for fiscal year 2026 which may be delayed, as well as the accelerated disbursement of the budget for fiscal year 2025 not meeting targets. Additionally, domestic purchasing power remains sluggish, particularly in durable goods, which have all contributed to the declining confidence of the industrial sector in recent times.

However, in July, there were positive factors from the “Thailand Half-Price Travel 2025” project, offering 500,000 rights within a budget of 1.75 billion baht (which commenced on July 1, 2025), expected to distribute income to local areas and stimulate the community economy broadly. Simultaneously, investments continued to show growth, with total investment value in the first half of 2025 reaching 1.06 trillion baht, an increase of 138% from the same period last year (YoY). This is expected to stimulate investment, enhance economic structure, and increase employment in the industrial sector. Additionally, stable oil prices contribute to reduced costs for operators.

A survey of 1,356 entrepreneurs across 47 industry groups from the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) in July 2025 revealed that concerns among entrepreneurs have increased regarding domestic economic conditions at 70.1%, global economic conditions at 66.7%, government policy at 57.2%, exchange rates (exporter's perspective) at 44.9%, energy prices at 35.5%, and loan interest rates at 27.1%. Meanwhile, concerns over access to credit have decreased to 42.3%.

Meanwhile, the confidence index forecast for the next three months has also declined, standing at 89.2, down from 90.8 in June 2025, due to the outcomes of the Reciprocal Tariff negotiations with the United States which may affect competitive capabilities if Thailand's tariffs are higher than those of regional competitors. Additionally, the prolonged disputes between Thailand and Cambodia continue to impact border trade values.

Nonetheless, there are supportive factors expected to help stabilize the economic situation, including measures to cap energy prices, as the electricity rate for the September–December 2025 billing period will remain at 3.94 baht per unit, as well as measures to promote Solar Rooftop installations which help reduce operator costs and support clean energy use. Furthermore, the 20-baht electric train fare for all routes (starting on October 1, 2025) is expected to alleviate the cost of living burden on citizens.

Recommendations to the Government: 
1. Suggest that the government implement measures to alleviate the impact on entrepreneurs affected by the Thai-Cambodian border conflict, enabling them to resume business operations swiftly, alongside establishing support projects for Thai entrepreneurs investing in Cambodia to mitigate impacts and reduce long-term business risks.
2. Recommend that the government introduce measures to support low-interest loans or relaxed terms to enhance financial liquidity and assist in the adaptation of entrepreneurs affected by U.S. import tariff measures, and assist SMEs in the supply chain, as well as prepare entrepreneurs to adapt to the Reciprocal Tariff rate instituted on August 1, 2025.
3. Propose that the government expedite investments in developing infrastructure for water resource management systems to prevent and alleviate flooding issues in the northern region, enhancing efficiency in water storage, distribution, and sustainable ecosystem restoration.

The FTI has compiled data from the industrial confidence index survey and economic and industrial indicators from various agencies over the past three years, creating a dashboard published on the Industry Data Space (iDS) website of FTI to facilitate access to useful information for entrepreneurs and the public in conducting business, available at https://fti.or.th/ids

The FTI aims to “Strengthen Thai Industries for Stronger Thailand.”
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Published by the Corporate Communications Department, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1051)
Prepared by the Economic and Academic Department, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1111)