กกร. กังวลมาตรการภาษีสหรัฐฯ เสนอรัฐเร่งบูรณาการข้อมูลการค้าFTI Expresses Concerns Over U.S. Tax Measures, Urges Government to Integrate Trade Data

On Wednesday, March 5, 2025, Mr. Kriangkrai Theeranukul, President of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), chaired a meeting of the Joint Committees of the Private Sector from three institutions (JCPSC), with Dr. Phong Aramwattananon, representative from the Thai Chamber of Commerce, and Mr. Kobsak Duangdee, representative from the Thai Banker Association, participating in the press conference.

The United States is anticipated to further increase import taxes, both specific and broad-based. The announcement includes taxes on steel and aluminum imports, preparation for increased tariffs on automotive products, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, as well as plans for reciprocal tariffs on a wide range of goods where the U.S. is disadvantaged due to high import duties. This may result in an average tax cost increase of 6-8% for Thai products. The ongoing trade war has pressured the U.S. economy, with a slowdown seen in consumption and the service sector, while the industrial sectors in Europe and Japan continue to contract.

The JCPSC also expressed concerns regarding the implementation of U.S. import tax policies, which may impact the overall export performance of Thailand. Recently, the U.S. announced an increase in import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 10% to 25%, eliminating country-specific exemptions, quota agreements, and product-specific exemptions. These measures will be effective from March 12, 2025, resulting in Thai exporters of steel and aluminum to the U.S. having to bear increased import tax burdens. Therefore, the JCPSC urged the government to accelerate the integration of trade data across all dimensions between Thailand and the U.S., including trade balances, service and digital balances, transport balances, and educational balances, to analyze and establish joint positions with the private sector in trade negotiations between the two countries. Additionally, strategies must be set to cope with the increased U.S. import tax policies and the impacts of the trade war, in order to mitigate the effects on entrepreneurs and create new trade opportunities while reducing dependence on existing markets.

The Thai economy shows signs of weakening, reflected in the fourth quarter GDP of 2024 that grew by only 3.2%, lower than the forecast of around 4.0%. As a result, the GDP for the entire year of 2024 expanded only by 2.5%, below its potential level, primarily due to the contraction in industrial production, in contrast to a good export growth. This is attributed to structural problems and intense competition from foreign products in several large industries such as automotive, chemicals, rubber and plastics, electronics, and construction materials.

In 2025, the Thai economy faces high risks, with foreign research agencies lowering their GDP outlook for Thailand to 2.6% from a previous estimate of 2.7%, amid risks from trade policies and ongoing pressures on the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, domestic demand remains fragile, consistent with the Bank of Thailand's outlook leading to a reduction in the policy interest rate. Additional measures are needed to reduce impacts and support growth both in the short and long term, particularly in addressing changes in global trade policy, accelerating budget disbursement, reducing costs for entrepreneurs, and enhancing the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector in the long term.

Economic projections for the year 2025 from the JCPSC:
(as of December 2024) for 2024
GDP 2.5
Exports 5.8*
Inflation 0.4*

(as of February 2025) for 2025
GDP between 2.4 and 2.9
Exports between 1.5 and 2.5
Inflation between 0.8 and 1.2

(as of March 2025) for 2025
GDP between 2.4 and 2.9
Exports between 1.5 and 2.5
Inflation between 0.8 and 1.2

Note: *Actual figures
Source: National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) and estimates by the JCPSC.

The JCPSC agreed with the Bank of Thailand's extension of the registration period for vulnerable individual debtors and SMEs to participate in the “We Support, You Fight” program until April 30, 2025, to increase opportunities for debtors to receive assistance. This will cover approximately 2.1 million accounts with a total debt of about 890 billion baht. Currently, as of February 16, 2025, the number of registered debtors stands at 820,000 or equivalent to 990,000 accounts. The program consists of three measures: 1) the “Direct Payment, Retain Assets” measure for debtors of commercial banks, financial business groups, and financial institutions participating in the program; 2) the “Pay, Close, Complete” measure for debtors of commercial banks, financial business groups, financial institutions, and Non-Bank participants; and 3) the “Reduce Payments, Reduce Interest” measure for Non-Bank debtors participating in the program. The “We Support, You Fight” initiative is a debt restructuring program aimed at significantly reducing payment burdens for debtors and is a temporary measure extending up to three years, sufficient to support and accommodate the subsequent structural reforms by the government to sustainably address household debt issues. This includes having complete credit information from all credit providers in the NCB database, establishing a database of informal debt, enhancing and certifying labor skills to increase household income, and creating fair competitiveness and trade capabilities for SMEs, among others.