ผ⁠ล⁠ก⁠ร⁠ะ⁠ท⁠บตะวันออกกลาง ฉุดดัชนีเชื่อมั่นอุตฯ เม.ย. ลดลง ชงรัฐเร่งหนุนพลังงานสะอาด–ยกระดับ SMEsImpact of the Middle East Crisis Diminishes Industrial Confidence Index in April, Urges Government to Accelerate Support for Clean Energy and Enhance SMEs

On Wednesday, May 20, 2026, Ms. Pimjai Leeissaranukul, President of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), along with Dr. Wirat Chatrarong, Vice President of FTI and Vice President of Economic and Academic Affairs, Dr. Piyanuch Malakul Na Ayutthaya, Vice President of FTI and Chair of Corporate Communication Affairs, and Ms. Parrarat Petchphakdee, Director General of FTI, disclosed the results of the Industrial Confidence Index survey for April 2026, which stood at 85.3, declining from 88.6 in March 2026.

The decrease in this index is attributed to several factors, mainly the slowdown in the industrial manufacturing sector due to fewer working days during the long Songkran holiday. Meanwhile, global oil prices remained high, with the average Brent crude oil price in April 2026 at 120 USD per barrel, resulting in the average diesel price rising to 45.32 THB per liter, an increase of 33.2% compared to the previous month (Month on Month: MoM).

At the same time, the Oil Fund remained in a deficit position of 62 billion THB, prompting the Office of the Oil Fund (OFPA) to borrow an additional 20 billion THB, increasing the financial burden on the Oil Fund.

Moreover, the costs of raw materials in various industries, such as plastic pellets, packaging, and construction materials, have risen due to increased energy prices, transport costs, and logistics expenses, affecting the profitability of operators. Simultaneously, freight rates on key trade routes increased, particularly on the West Coast of the United States, which rose by 5.7% compared to the previous month, along with additional surcharges and insurance costs arising from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, thereby increasing logistics and export costs for operators.

Furthermore, government investment budget disbursements were still lagging, with a disbursement rate of 38.31% as of April 24, 2026, lower than the target set at 45.0%, resulting in a slow circulation of funds in the economic system.

Nonetheless, in April 2026, there were some supportive factors, including the Songkran festival activities that stimulated the tourism sector and domestic spending, which is expected to generate over 30.35 billion THB from April 11-15, 2026, an increase of 6% compared to the same period last year (Year on Year: YoY).

Additionally, the government has introduced measures to assist the transport sector by subsidizing fuel costs for non-regular trucks (yellow plate) at a rate of 6 THB per liter from April 20 to May 31, 2026, which helps alleviate short-term logistics costs, while private sector investment trends appear to be expanding, as reflected in the total value of investment promotion applications in the first quarter of 2026 amounting to 1.02 trillion THB, an increase of 2.4 times compared to the previous year, particularly in the electronics, energy, agriculture, and food industries.

Simultaneously, the government's regulation of domestic fuel distribution has helped address oil shortages at service stations and reduce the risk of disruptions in the transport and industrial manufacturing sectors. Moreover, Moody’s Ratings has upgraded Thailand's credit outlook to “stable,” further boosting investor confidence.

According to a survey of 1,354 operators covering 48 industrial groups of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) in April 2026, factors that have raised concerns among operators include energy prices (84.6%), the global economy (80.6%), the domestic economy (74.2%), government policies (39.4%), exchange rates (especially from the exporters' perspective) (46.5%), loan interest rates (34.1%), and access to credit (32.6%).

Meanwhile, the industrial confidence index forecast for the next three months stands at 92.8, a decrease from 95.9 in March 2026, with significant pressure stemming from concerns over the promulgation of a royal decree empowering the Ministry of Finance to borrow 400 billion THB, which may increase pressure on public debt levels and long-term fiscal stability.

Additionally, product costs are expected to continue rising, especially in the plastic packaging and construction materials sectors, which may be passed on to product prices and create inflationary pressure in the second quarter of 2026. At the same time, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to exert pressure on global energy prices, leading to sustained increases in costs for the industrial and tourism sectors.

However, the government’s economic stimulus measures, such as the “Thai Help Thai Plus” project and the “old car for new car” program, are expected to help stimulate domestic spending and support the growth of the automotive and domestic parts industries.

Recommendations to the Government  
1.  Enhance the government's facilitation of the joint meeting mechanism of the Central GRC and the Energy GRC to promote collaboration between the government and the private sector in addressing economic problems.
2.  Propose that the government establish a one-stop service center for solar panel installation permit applications, along with a review, cancellation, or consolidation of redundant licenses into a primary license (Super License) to facilitate, reduce bureaucratic burden, time, and costs for citizens and businesses.
3.  Request the government to expedite the promotion of the use of biofuels E20 and B10 or other formulas as the primary energy sources for transport and industry through clear and continuous support measures to help reduce energy costs, decrease reliance on imported oil, and enhance national energy security.
4.  Propose the government support the FTI in serving as a mechanism to connect, screen, and forward SMEs to funding sources and support measures through the FTI SME Funding Connect system to ensure that SMEs can effectively access government measures.

The FTI has also compiled the results of the industrial confidence index survey and economic and industrial indicators over the past three years into a Dashboard available on the Industry Data Space (iDS) website to facilitate operators and the public in accessing information for business use, which can be accessed at https://fti.or.th/ids.

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Published by the Corporate Communication Department, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel: 0-2345-1051)
Compiled by the Economic and Academic Department, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel: 0-2345-1111)