ดัชนีอุตฯ มี.ค. ลด เหตุวิกฤตตะวันออกกลางดันต้นทุน เร่งรัฐออกมาตรการช่วยเหลือด้านราคาพลังงานIndustrial Index Decline in March Due to Middle East Crisis Driving Up Costs, Urging Government to Implement Energy Price Support Measures

Mr. Nava Chanthanasurakhan, Vice President of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), together with Ms. Banchusa Putthapromkhong, FTI Board Member and Vice President of the Economic and Academic Division of FTI, disclosed the results of the Industrial Confidence Index survey for March 2026, which stood at 88.6, a decrease from the level of 90.0 in February 2026.

The decline in this index is attributed to several factors, particularly the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, as well as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which resulted in rising energy prices and transportation costs, thereby putting pressure on the cost of production in the industrial sector. Additionally, this situation has negatively impacted exports to the Middle East, especially in the automotive, air conditioning, and wood product sectors.

Meanwhile, the price of diesel has risen to 40.74 baht per liter as of March 31, 2026, increasing by 36.07% compared to the previous month, leading to higher costs in the transportation, agriculture, and industrial sectors. Furthermore, there have been reports of diesel shortages at some service stations, impacting economic activities in those areas.

Moreover, the industrial sector is facing a supply shock regarding raw materials such as plastic pellets, chemicals, packaging materials, and aluminum, which has increased production costs and pressured operators to consider adjusting product prices. This situation has also resulted in delays in transportation processes.

At the same time, shipping rates have increased due to the tense situation in the Middle East, specifically the risk insurance premiums and additional surcharge fees, along with issues of stranded goods that cannot be transported to the Persian Gulf countries, all of which have impacted the cost burden on operators.

However, in March 2026, there were some supportive factors, including the implementation of income tax exemption measures for the purchase and installation of solar energy systems, which are effective from March 3, 2026, to December 31, 2028. These measures are helping to stimulate demand in the solar energy products and energy storage systems.

Additionally, the organization of trade shows and promotional events, such as the Bangkok International Motor Show 2026 from March 25 to April 5, 2026, and the 49th Home and Condo Expo from March 19 to 22, 2026, is expected to help stimulate purchasing power in the automotive, construction materials, and related industries.

At the same time, measures to increase the proportion of biodiesel B7 and set the price of E20 fuel lower than E10 by about 5 baht per liter are expected to support the supply chain for biofuels. Additionally, the Thai baht has weakened by 5.55% from February 27 to March 31, 2026, coming to a level of 32.99 baht per US dollar, influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar and the tensions in the Middle East, which have positive implications for Thailand's export sector.

From a survey of 1,311 operators covering 48 industrial sectors of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) in March 2026, it was found that the factors causing increased concern among operators included energy prices at 71.9%, the global economy at 69.8%, the domestic economy at 57.7%, and loan interest rates at 21.4%. Meanwhile, factors causing reduced concern included the exchange rate (particularly from the exporters' perspective) at 43.8%, government policies at 33.6%, and access to credit at 24.8%.

In addition, the Industrial Confidence Index outlook for the next three months is projected to be at a level of 95.9, decreasing from 97.4 in February 2026, with pressure factors encompassing various key issues, including ongoing concerns over the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which appears likely to persist, putting pressure on supply chains and logistics that adversely affect production and tourism in Thailand.

Moreover, the automatic adjustment of electricity rates (Ft) for the period from May to August 2026 is likely to increase, approaching approximately 4 baht per unit, due to rising energy prices, which will subsequently drive up energy costs for the industrial sector.

At the same time, the slowdown in demand from trading partners in the Persian Gulf, particularly the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, may exert additional pressure on Thailand's exports, especially in the automotive, food, air conditioning, jewelry, and wood product sectors.

Nevertheless, the government is in the process of preparing measures to mitigate the impact of the energy crisis in a targeted manner to help reduce the cost burden on businesses and maintain stability in the production sector moving forwards.

Recommendations to the government:
1. Propose that the government consider reducing the excise tax on fuel, along with utilizing the oil fund mechanism to stabilize diesel prices, and monitoring to prevent stockpiling or unjustified price hikes to alleviate the impact on the cost of the industrial sector, particularly SMEs and transportation.
2. Request that the government accelerate energy-saving measures and support transport pooling (Pool Logistics), along with managing backhaul trips to reduce empty runs, which will help lower shipping costs.
3. Suggest that the government consider suspending the export of scrap iron, scrap aluminum, and scrap paper to retain raw material volumes for domestic use, while expediting the development of a raw material database in the country and alternative raw material sources, such as plastic pellets, by creating a dashboard to manage raw materials and mitigate the impacts of supply shocks.

The FTI has compiled data from the Industrial Confidence Index survey and economic and industrial indicators from various agencies over the past three years, creating a dashboard published on the website of the Industry Data Space (iDS) of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) to facilitate access for operators and the general public to useful information for business operations, accessible at https://fti.or.th/ids. The FTI aims to “Strengthen Thai Industries for a Stronger Thailand.”

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Published by: Corporate Communications Division, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel: 0-2345-1051)
Data compiled by: Economic and Academic Division, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel: 0-2345-1111)