ส.อ.ท. แนะรัฐดูแลค่าเงินบาท–รับมือ CBAM-เพิ่มโอกาส SMEs หลังดัชนีเชื่อมั่นภาคอุตฯ ธ.ค. ลดลงFTI Advises Government to Manage the Baht and Address CBAM to Enhance Opportunities for SMEs Following Decline in Industrial Confidence Index in December

Mr. Kriangkrai Theeranukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), along with M.L. Pikthong Thongyai, Vice Chairman of FTI and Vice Chairman of the Economic and Academic Committee of FTI, Ms. Petchrat Ekasangkul, Vice Chairman of FTI, and Ms. Banchusa Phuthapromkong, Committee Member of FTI and Vice Chairman of the Economic and Academic Committee, jointly revealed the results of the industrial confidence index survey for December 2025, which stands at 88.2, a decrease from 89.1 in November 2025.

The decline in the index is attributed to several significant factors, including the border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia, which disrupted economic activities in the border areas of Ubon Ratchathani, Surin, Buriram, Si Sa Ket, Sa Kaeo, Chanthaburi, and Trat. Additionally, there are concerns about the continuity of government policies following the announcement of the dissolution of parliament, particularly regarding the “Half-Half Plus Phase Two” project and trade negotiations between Thailand and the United States.

At the same time, the manufacturing sector has slowed down due to accelerated production in the previous period and the reduced working days during the year-end holidays. Furthermore, exports are also projected to slow down in accordance with the economic conditions of certain trading partner countries, such as China, Japan, and ASEAN, as well as the PM2.5 dust situation in various regions, which affects outdoor activities and public health.

Moreover, the appreciation of the baht resulting from the reduction in the policy interest rate in the United States, along with capital flow trends and domestic liquidity, has led to a decrease in exporters' income while increasing the costs for foreign tourists, thereby affecting the tourism sector overall.

However, in December, there were still several positive factors that supported the economy, including the approach of the year-end festival and increased spending under the “Half-Half Plus” program before the project ends on December 31, 2025, which has contributed to consumer spending and stimulated expenditure in the region during the year-end period.

Additionally, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to lower the policy interest rate by 0.25% per annum from 1.50% to 1.25%, which helps alleviate the financial burden for businesses and households. Simultaneously, the Fuel Fund Committee (FFC) approved to reduce the diesel fuel fund rate by 20 satang per liter, and some operators reduced the prices of diesel and gasoline by 50 satang per liter, effective from December 24, 2025, which helps alleviate the cost of living and business costs.

Moreover, the government's cost of living assistance measures, such as flood relief funds, financial aid for farmers, and assistance for vulnerable groups, have also helped alleviate expenses and sustain purchasing power to some extent in the short term.

From a survey of 1,330 operators across 47 industrial groups of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) in December 2025, it was found that the factors of increasing concern include the domestic economy at 62.8%, global economy at 57.4%, exchange rates (especially from exporters' perspectives) at 50.4%, and energy prices at 28.6%. Meanwhile, the factors that showed decreased concern among operators include government policies at 40.3%, access to credit at 25.3%, and interest rates at 17.1%.

The three-month confidence index stood at 95.7, an increase from 94.9 in November 2025, attributed to various positive factors, including the newly implemented import tax measures on goods from online platforms starting from the first baht (previously exempt for goods priced below 1,500 baht) effective January 1, 2026, to control the import of inexpensive goods from abroad and reduce unfair competition against Thai operators. Furthermore, the formation of a new government is expected to accelerate economic recovery due to the clarity of policy direction and overall economic activities.

However, there are still negative factors that need to be closely monitored, including concerns about the risks of renewed tensions at the Thai-Cambodian border, even after a ceasefire agreement has been signed, as well as the European Union's Cross-Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will take effect on January 1, 2026, leading to increased compliance cost burdens, including greenhouse gas emission reporting, before the official carbon emissions charge begins in 2027.

Recommendations to the Government  
1.  It is recommended that the government and relevant agencies manage the exchange rate to alleviate the appreciation of the baht by monitoring and enhancing the oversight of transactions in the exchange rate market, capital movement, gold market, and digital asset trading to reduce speculation and currency volatility, while also preventing transactions that do not correspond with actual economic activities.
2.  It is suggested that the government promote compliance with the EU's CBAM measures that have fully implemented since January 1, 2026, such as supporting funding and providing technical advisory expertise for reducing carbon emissions and GHG reporting, promoting circular use of raw materials within the country, and encouraging the use of clean energy.
3.  It is recommended that the government increase the proportion of procurements from SMEs through the e-GP system to 50% and make it a Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for state agencies to expand market opportunities and enhance SMEs' access to government procurement.

On this occasion, Mr. Kriangkrai expressed gratitude to several political parties for emphasizing and advocating the promotion of the consumption of domestically produced goods (Made in Thailand: MiT) as part of their campaign policies, as the Thai industrial sector is currently facing an influx of cheap imported products and the issue of transshipment, which severely impacts Thai operators and the domestic supply chain.

    
Mr. Kriangkrai stated that if the MiT project is implemented concretely under the new government, it will be a crucial mechanism for strengthening the Thai industrial sector, as FTI has continuously urged the government to set a MiT usage ratio of not less than 30% in public procurement projects to generate demand for Thai products in the economy.

    
Moreover, the MiT certification plays a significant role in public procurement according to the ministerial regulation on the specification of procurement materials and methods, granting preference to bidders who use domestically produced materials certified with the MiT mark from FTI over other bidders by up to 5%. Currently, this certification is highly trusted by government agencies, and the annual value of support for MiT goods exceeds 100 billion baht.

Ms. Petchrat further stated, "FTI places importance on the oversight of products, enhancing the strictness of issuing MiT certificates to protect the rights of Thai operators who operate correctly. We have amended the FTI regulation No. 34 (Revision 2) 2025 to prohibit importing identical SKU products from seeking MiT certification and also prohibit the deletion, alteration, or modification of product lists and MiT certification if there are reasonable grounds for suspicion. FTI reserves the right to review or revoke the certification. If revoked, the SKU will be permanently barred from issuance, and the company will not be eligible to apply for certification for any products for a period of 2 years.”

At the same time, the system for checking the MiT certification has been upgraded and developed to ensure it is modern and reliable, allowing buyers or relevant agencies to verify the authenticity of documents themselves 24 hours a day through two main channels: scanning the QR Code shown on the certificate, linking to FTI's central database to display the latest status, or visiting the website www.mit.fti.or.th by entering the certificate number or company name to verify product information and the expiration date of the certificate, as well as to prevent damage from the use of counterfeit documents. In case of finding fraud or misconduct, it can be reported to FTI, which will take legal action to uphold the standard of the Made in Thailand (MiT) certification.

Moreover, FTI has compiled data on the industrial confidence index survey and economic and industrial indicators from various agencies over the past three years and created a Dashboard to be published on the Industry Data Space (iDS) website of FTI to facilitate access for operators and the general public to useful data for business operations. This service can be accessed at https://fti.or.th/ids.

FTI aims to "Strengthen Thai Industries for a Stronger Thailand."

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Published by the Corporate Communications Department, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1051)
Prepared by the Economic and Academic Department, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1111)