ดัชนีเชื่อมั่นอุตฯ ชะลอตัว หนุนรัฐเร่ง “Quick Big Win” กระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจIndustry Confidence Index Slows Down, Prompting Government to Accelerate 'Quick Big Win' Economic Stimulus

On Wednesday, November 19, 2025, Mr. Kriengkrai Thiennukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), along with M.L. Pikthong Tongyai, Vice Chairman of FTI and Chairman of the Economics and Academic Line of FTI, Mr. Apichit Paspornrat, Vice Chairman of FTI, and Ms. Phornrat Phetphakdee, Director General of FTI, jointly disclosed the results of the industrial confidence index survey for October 2025, which stands at 87.3, a slight decrease from 87.8 in September 2025. This result is attributed to several significant factors, including a decrease in durable goods exports, the closure of U.S. federal government agencies, the continuous expansion of imports from China, ongoing concerns over water and flood situations in multiple areas, and the continued contraction of border trade and cross-border trade. This took place in Room Passion (802) at FTI.

The decrease in the index is due to several key factors, including a reduction in durable goods exports, particularly in the internal combustion engine vehicle and air conditioning segments, driven by slowing demand in the Australian and U.S. markets, as well as continuous declines in orders for wood products in the markets of China and Malaysia. Additionally, the closure of U.S. federal government agencies remains a risk factor expected to reduce the country's GDP by about 0.1% per week, amounting to approximately 7 billion USD, which may impact the overall economic situation and labor market in the United States. Furthermore, imports from China continue to expand, showing a 33.49% increase from January to September 2025 compared to the same period last year (YoY), affecting sales for domestic producers, especially in the electrical appliance sector (+9.78% YoY), steel (+9.23% YoY), and plastics (+16.28% YoY).

Moreover, concerns over the ongoing water and flood situations, which are expanding in many areas, continue to impact the production of the processed agricultural industry, as well as business operations and economic activities in the region. Additionally, the value of border trade and cross-border trade has continued to contract, with trade value with Myanmar dropping to 9.401 billion baht (-40.8%) in September 2025, while trade with Cambodia decreased to only 11 million baht (-99.9%) compared to the same period last year.

However, in October, several positive factors helped stabilize the economy. The Executive Committee of the Fuel Oil Fund (FEF) resolved to reduce diesel prices by 0.50 baht to 30.94 baht per liter and to reduce gasoline prices by 0.30 baht per liter, effective from October 21, 2025. These measures help ease the burden of living costs for the public and reduce production costs in the industrial sector. Moreover, the approach into the vegetarian festival period and the tourism season (High Season) also serves as a critical factor to stimulate domestic spending, especially in the food, handicrafts, souvenirs, and clothing sectors. Meanwhile, the achievement of the peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia helps ease the tense atmosphere along the border. Additionally, economic stimulus measures from the government, such as the “Half-Half” project and “Joyful Trip Returns”, contributed to stimulating consumer spending in the final quarter of the year, resulting in an overall improvement in the economic atmosphere.

From the survey results involving 1,335 entrepreneurs across 47 industry groups of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) in October 2025, the factors that have increased concern include domestic economic conditions at 67.3%, global economic conditions at 63.1%, and exchange rates (especially from the exporters’ perspective) at 48.1%. Meanwhile, the factors that entrepreneurs are less concerned about include government policies at 48%, access to credit at 29.1%, energy prices at 27.1%, and interest rates at 20.4%.

Meanwhile, the index forecast for the next three months has continuously increased, standing at 93.5 from 91.8 in September 2025, reflecting an improving business confidence, which is a result of the government’s “Quick Big Win” measures, such as the resolution to address household debt issues through the establishment of an Asset Management Company (AMC) to buy and restructure non-performing household debts, along with supporting measures for SMEs by allowing the Small Industries Credit Guarantee Corporation (SCS) to guarantee loans with a minimum budget of 50 billion baht, which helps boost liquidity and stimulate investment in the economic system.

Additionally, the economic relationship between Thailand and the United States has shown positive developments, as both countries have reached an agreement on reciprocal trade frameworks. The U.S. has maintained retaliatory tariffs at 19% while granting a zero percent tax exemption on certain products from Thailand, which is expected to positively impact Thai exports in the future. Meanwhile, trade negotiations between the U.S. and China show signs of easing, with the U.S. reducing import tariffs from China to 47% from the previous 57%, while China has relaxed restrictions on rare earth exports, which helps ease the atmosphere of global trade.

Despite these positive signals from various factors, the Thai industry still faces certain risks that must be monitored, particularly concerns regarding gray businesses that may affect the country’s business image and the confidence of foreign investors. Additionally, the baht remains in a strengthening zone, another factor that may impact export revenues as well as Thailand’s competitiveness in the global tourism market.

Recommendations to the Government
1. Propose to the government to expedite the disbursement of procurement budgets to SMEs within 30–45 days from the project acceptance to reduce liquidity issues, along with reducing the contract guarantee amount and expediting refunds within 15 days.
2. Propose to accelerate the expenditure of the fiscal budget for the fiscal year 2026 amounting to 4.37 trillion baht, aiming for at least 33% disbursement within the first quarter of the fiscal year 2026, in accordance with the Quick Big Win policy to facilitate the rapid influx of money into the economic system.
3. Support the government in taking measures against and preventing gray businesses in all dimensions and collaborate to drive the Zero Corruption plan of the Joint Public-Private Sector Committee (JPPSC) in six areas to create transparency in the economic system, build confidence, and maintain Thailand's favorable image.

The FTI has compiled survey data on the industrial confidence index and economic and industrial indicators from various agencies over the past three years and developed a dashboard published on the Industry Data Space (iDS) website of the FTI to facilitate entrepreneurs and the public in accessing relevant business information beneficial for operations. This data can be accessed at https://fti.or.th/ids.

The FTI aims to "Strengthen Thai Industries for a Stronger Thailand".

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Published by the Corporate Communications Division, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1051)
Compiled by the Economics and Academic Division, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1111)