ดัชนีเชื่อมั่นอุตฯ ฟื้นตัวรอบ 4 เดือน รับแรงหนุนไทยช่วยไทยพลัส-ราคาพลังงานลดIndex of Industrial Confidence Rebounds for the Fourth Consecutive Month Supported by Thai Help Thai Plus and Decreased Energy Prices

On Wednesday, July 8, 2026, Dr. Wirat Chatdarong, Vice Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and Vice Chairman of the Economic and Academic Working Group, along with Ms. Anusak Chaowisit, Deputy Secretary-General of FTI, Committee Member and Secretary of the Economic and Academic Working Group, and Mr. Wachirachai Khunamwatana, Vice Chairman of the Economic and Academic Working Group, jointly disclosed the results of the Industrial Confidence Index survey for June 2026, which stood at 88.2, an increase from 84.7 in May 2026, supported by domestic consumption and reduced energy prices. They also urged the government to expedite energy cost reductions, develop an Early Warning system to prevent dumping imports, and promote the use of Made in Thailand (MiT) products to enhance the country's competitiveness.

The increase in the index was supported by several factors, including the "Thai Help Thai Plus" measures that alleviated the cost of living burden for citizens and supported the recovery of domestic consumption by creating a cash flow in the economy amounting to over 43.2 billion baht.

Additionally, mid-year promotional activities by businesses, including the Amazing Thailand Grand Sale 2026, have helped stimulate sales of consumer goods, food, beverages, fashion, and lifestyle products, as well as promote spending by tourists.

At the same time, the temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran has eased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in lower global oil prices and domestic diesel prices, which alleviates energy costs and transportation expenses for the industrial sector, as well as reduces the risk of raw material shortages in the petrochemical and fertilizer industries.

    
In addition, the Thailand FastPass project has accelerated investment in 25 projects, totaling 223 billion baht, and is expected to catalyze a total investment of over 700 billion baht, which contributes to fostering investment confidence and stimulating demand in the supply chains of related industries.

In terms of international trade, exports in the technology sector continue to show growth. In the first five months of 2026, they expanded by 37.6 percent, driven by rising global demand.

Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the policy interest rate at 1.0 percent per annum, which helps reduce financial cost pressures and supports the recovery of the still vulnerable economy.

However, despite the increase in the confidence index, there are still risks that need to be closely monitored. In June 2026, significant issues included the expansion of controlled goods to 66 items, such as seasoning sauces and coconut products, which may limit operators' ability to pass on costs to consumers, particularly in the food product group.

Moreover, trade barriers from partner countries such as Malaysia, Mexico, and Vietnam continue to affect Thai exports to those markets.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector in some industries still faces pressure, reflected from the slowdown in the Capacity Utilization (CapU) rate due to reduced orders in some sectors such as steel, textiles, and clothing.

Regarding the automotive industry, the pickup truck market continues to be under pressure from weak purchasing power and strict credit approval, as reflected in a 5.13 percent decline in sales of pickup trucks compared to the same period last year (Year-on-Year: YoY), while demand from foreign markets decreased by 12.31 percent compared to the same period last year in January-May 2026, affecting the supply chain of relevant automotive parts industries.

From a survey of 1,328 operators across 48 industrial sectors of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) in June 2026, it was found that concerns among operators had decreased, including global economy at 61.6 percent, energy prices at 59.0 percent, domestic economy at 55.6 percent, and access to credit at 31.7 percent. Exchange rates (particularly from the perspective of exporters) at 29.9 percent, government policies at 28.8 percent, and borrowing interest rates at 25.8 percent.

The Industrial Confidence Index forecast for the next three months is expected to stand at 94.5, an increase from 91.8 in May 2026, with supporting factors and factors to monitor as follows:

On the positive side, the solar household measures and the energy restructuring plan of 200 billion baht are expected to stimulate demand in the supply chains of the clean energy industry, such as solar panels, electrical equipment, and energy storage systems, benefitting the related manufacturing sector.

However, there are still risk factors to watch out for, particularly uncertainties from the U.S. tax measures under Section 301, which are under review concerning labor force and overcapacity issues. Thailand is one of 16 countries in the review scope, which may lead to increased export costs and impact the competitiveness of Thai operators.

Additionally, there are concerns about the rising trend of policy interest rates in major economies due to inflationary pressures, which may affect trade conditions, investment, and the global economy's recovery in the future.

In light of these factors, FTI has compiled recommendations from operators who responded to the survey in June 2026, along with additional proposals from the assessment of the country's competitiveness by the International Institute for Management Development (IMD) to guide in enhancing Thailand's competitiveness in the future. The details are as follows:

Recommendations to the government in June 2026
1. Suggest the government plan and set clear targets for creating a balance between electricity price structures, competitiveness, and carbon neutrality goals, along with integrating projects under the 200 billion baht loan to achieve maximum benefits, as well as hastening the study of other alternative energy sources such as SMR power plants, hydrogen, etc., to drive the country’s energy transition.
2. Suggest the government expedite the development of a monitoring system for high-risk imported goods that may be involved in dumping (Early Warning), both in terms of import volume and abnormal product prices, to support the private sector with information for submitting trade remedy petitions quickly and effectively.
3. Suggest the government launch a campaign to promote consumption of Thai products, along with measures to encourage the private sector to use domestically produced goods (MiT), such as allowing 1.5 times the expenses for purchasing Thai products to be deducted as expenses and granting investment incentives such as tax exemptions, etc., to promote and expand opportunities for Thai operators.

Recommendations to the government for enhancing Thailand's competitiveness
1. Economic Performance: Shift from short-term economic stimulus to long-term economic restructuring (Economic Transformation) by promoting strategic investments that address structural problems, distribute prosperity to regions, and create new economic engines, such as future vehicles, smart electronics, and future foods.
2. Government Efficiency: Accelerate the development of digital government and a comprehensive approval system through a central platform, along with reviewing and reducing burdensome regulations on businesses using the B-READY criteria to help reduce costs, time, and increase transparency.
3. Business Efficiency: Enhance the productivity of Thai businesses by supporting investments in technology, automation, AI, and high-efficiency machinery, along with creating added value for products and services, linking production with the global supply chain, and promoting mechanisms for technology transfer within the country.
4. Infrastructure: Reform the education system, develop workforce skills aligned with business needs (Skills Alignment), and systematically plan for long-term infrastructure development, such as energy structures, logistics systems, technology & innovation, digital and AI infrastructure, social welfare, and environmental care.

Moreover, FTI has compiled the results of the Industrial Confidence Index survey and economic and industrial indicators over the past three years, presenting them as a Dashboard on the Industry Data Space (iDS) website to facilitate access to information for operators and the public for business benefits. The information can be accessed at https://fti.or.th/ids

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Published by the Corporate Communication Department, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1051)
Data compiled by the Economic and Academic Department, Federation of Thai Industries (Tel. 0-2345-1111)