กกร. ชี้เศรษฐกิจไทยครึ่งปีหลัง รับอานิสงส์ AI-ส่งออกโต หนุน GDP 1.6-2.0%Joint Private Sector Committee: Thai Economy in the Second Half of the Year to Benefit from AI and Export Growth, Supporting GDP Growth of 1.6-2.0%

On Wednesday, August 5, 2026, Mr. Payong Srivanich, Chairman of the Thai Bankers’ Association, chaired a press conference for the Joint Private Sector Committee of three institutions (JPSCI), with Mr. Panithan Pawarorlarwittaya, Secretary-General of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), and Mr. Kasemsit Pathomsak, Vice Chairman of the Board of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, joining the press conference at the Golden Tulip Sovereign Hotel in Bangkok.

The JPSCI has revised its forecast for the Thai economy in 2026, expecting GDP growth of 1.6–2.0% and adjusting export growth to an increase of 8–10%, following the strong growth of technology exports driven by the global AI trend. It also proposes to hasten the use of local content and integrate government data to enhance the economic potential of Thailand.
The global economy in the second half of 2026 faces high uncertainty, with conflicts in the Middle East and the AI technology trend affecting global economic growth in a K-shape. This is reflected in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) GDP adjustment for 2026, where countries with high energy imports are likely to slow down, while countries benefiting from digital trends, including several Asian nations like Thailand, are expected to grow better. Concurrently, inflationary pressures, which have increased following events in the Middle East, remain unresolved, leading the market to anticipate an increase in U.S. interest rates, which in turn causes Asian currencies to depreciate due to yen management with the euro currency by the new model of policy implementation by allied central banks.

The Thai economy faces challenges in adapting to and capturing opportunities for added value according to global digital trends. While both exports and investments show strong growth potential, the value of Thai exports in the first half of the year expanded significantly by 17.6% YoY from technology products (representing 26.5%) which grew by 45.9% YoY, following the global artificial intelligence trend. Moreover, the manufacturing sector in the upward K shape demonstrates strong growth, but it is still unable to fully capture the resultant added value. Hence, there is an urgent need to enhance local content, which will address Regional Value Chains (RVC), alongside promoting local production to reduce dependence on foreign goods imports, fostering the establishment of domestic supply chains, and planning for quality job creation in the future, to benefit from the wave of foreign investment likely to flow into Thailand. Additionally, it is essential to identify declining K groups clearly within each industry to facilitate targeted assistance and support.

The JPSCI supports the elevation of data connectivity to be updated, comprehensive, and with accurate verification mechanisms to lead to the design of suitable, relevant, measurable measures that boost the overall efficiency of economic driving. Examples include Factory Data Form 8, which provides production data from business operators, enabling the development of Thai businesses in various dimensions, particularly in supporting products made in Thailand (Made in Thailand: MiT). Additionally, the availability of production structure data, local content usage, labor data, and supply chains supports the recovery of businesses in declining K-shaped sectors to create more precise demand and supply, generating opportunities and income for operators while utilizing financial resources efficiently as a whole.

Furthermore, the JPSCI advocates for the integration of data from various government and private agencies (Connect the dots) with an updated, reliable, and comprehensive database, progressing towards becoming an Open Government. This includes the enhancement of categorizing assistance for vulnerable groups through the latest social welfare card scheme, tailoring it to individual needs fairly, and reducing exploitation due to legal loopholes, along with implementing checks on nominee usage. This is the starting point for linking essential government data through online systems, fundamentally ensuring data-driven national development, in line with the Reinvent Thailand initiative, which correlates with the crackdown on online crimes, gray capital, the informal economy, and currency loss from the system as reported by the Bank of Thailand. It also includes elevating the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) as a pilot area to facilitate business operations through a one-stop service via the facilitation act, ensuring that these initiatives are grounded in the ability to systematically and continually link data between government agencies and also between government and private agencies.

The JPSCI is prepared to advocate for the advancement of five strategic initiatives related to new investment development by the GRC, which includes (1) Investment & Industry Transformation Hub (2) AI & Digital Hub (3) Green Economy (4) Financial Hub (5) Medical Hub, presenting opportunities to enhance the economic potential of Thailand. Analysts estimate that future Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into the ASEAN region will exceed $544 billion by 2035, with Thailand being a prime target for investments comparable to neighboring countries. This aligns with the half-year investment applications through the Board of Investment (BOI) totaling 1.47 trillion baht, an increase of 37% from the previous year, and this trend serves as a driving factor for the economic restructuring aimed at accelerating growth towards becoming a high-income country in the future.

Economic forecast framework for 2026 by the JPSCI:
Year 2025
GDP 2.4
Exports 12.9
Inflation -0.1

Year 2026
(As of April - May 2026) 
GDP 1.2 to 1.6
Exports -1.5 to -0.5
Inflation 2.0 to 3.0

Year 2026
(As of June - August 2026) 
GDP 1.6 to 2.0
Exports 8.0 to 10.0
Inflation 2.5 to 3.0

Source: NESDC, Ministry of Commerce, and estimates by the JPSCI.