กกร. ชี้แนวโน้มเศรษฐกิจปี 69 โตต่ำกว่า 2% หวังรัฐบาลใหม่เร่งปรับโครงสร้างเศรษฐกิจไทยJoint Private Sector Committee (JCC) Predicts 2026 Economic Growth Below 2%, Looking Forward to New Government Accelerating Economic Restructuring

On Wednesday, February 4, 2026, Mr. Kriangkrai Theeranukool, President of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), presided over a press conference of the Joint Private Sector Committee of 3 Institutions (JCC), with Dr. Photch Aramwattananon, Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Council of Thai Chambers of Commerce, and Mr. Payong Srivanit, President of the Thai Bankers' Association, attending the press conference at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center.

The geopolitical factors and uncertainties from U.S. tax measures pose significant risks to the global economy in 2026, as reflected in the Global Risks Report by the World Economic Forum, which identifies geoeconomic factors as the top risk in the world, increasing from the previous year.

Furthermore, ongoing geopolitical events since the beginning of the year have led to fluctuations in financial markets, particularly in currency and gold prices, due to U.S. tax measures. This year, at least nine items are subject to additional import taxes, with an export value to the United States of $45 billion, accounting for 63% of Thailand's exports to the U.S. in 2025, particularly in semiconductors, which grew by 53%.

The JCC expresses concerns about the Thai economy in 2026, predicting growth below 2%, with additional risks stemming from the preparation of the 2027 budget that may be delayed. Recently, the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has forecast that public spending will decrease from the previous year, particularly in terms of investment. Data from the Comptroller General’s Department as of January 31, 2026, indicates that budget disbursement reached 176.655 billion baht, representing 21.57%, which is below the target set at 26% by the end of January 2026, reflecting delays in public investment projects.

Additionally, the JCC hopes for a smooth political transition following the elections to ensure continuity in economic policy, reduce regulations to enhance competitiveness, and support SMEs to gain advantages for products made in Thailand, as well as promote investment to elevate business potential in line with the "Reinvent Thailand" approach for sustainable growth.

 
The JCC's economic projections for 2026 are as follows:
For 2025 (as of December 2025)
GDP: 2.0
Exports: 12.9*
Inflation: -0.1*

For 2026 (as of December 2025 – January 2026)
GDP: 1.6 to 2.0
Exports: -1.5 to -0.5
Inflation: 0.2 to 0.7

For 2026 (as of February 2026)
GDP: 1.6 to 2.0
Exports: -1.5 to -0.5
Inflation: 0.2 to 0.7

Note: *Actual numbers
Source: NESDC, Ministry of Commerce, and estimates by the JCC.

The JCC expresses gratitude to the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Thailand for proactively addressing gold transaction issues that impact the movement of the baht through the control of gold transactions denominated in baht on online platforms. However, in the future, relevant agencies must work together to establish mechanisms and tools for systematic monitoring, connect comprehensive data, and adjust regulations to prevent and close gaps in other transactions that may affect the baht, such as trading in digital assets, which has been found to have a high level of USDT trading on platforms in Thailand, with a relatively high proportion of foreign investors. The exchange rate movements between USDT and the baht mirror those between USD and the baht, among others.

The JCC expresses concerns regarding the election policies of political parties, which often emphasize populist policies and short-term economic stimulus, incurring high budgets compared to investments for long-term economic restructuring, as well as a lack of policies to create systematic and sustainable revenue for the country. At the same time, political parties should be mindful of the fiscal space limitations due to the rising public debt, which was recorded at 12.45 trillion baht, or 66.09% of GDP, as of December 2025, nearing the fiscal sustainability threshold set by law at 70% of GDP, making the formulation of expenditure policies increasingly constrained.

The JCC believes that future economic policy formulation should emphasize long-term growth strategies while effectively utilizing fiscal resources, focusing on creating new revenue streams for the country through increasing the productivity of the manufacturing sector, enhancing the capabilities of entrepreneurs, particularly SMEs, developing technology and innovation, as well as establishing a resilient economy capable of withstanding future fluctuations and achieving stable, balanced, and sustainable growth, in line with the spirit of Reinvent Thailand.